It would be fair to note that although fourth-generation mobile networks now get most of the attention, most of the capital spending continues to occur in support of 2G and 3G networks. In 2010, the global mobile infrastructure market declined 10.7 percent to $42.4 billion, principally because of lower spending on 2G networks.
Spending is expected to grow in 2011 by 9.7 percent, driven by large-scale 2G capacity upgrades, 2G network modernization, and 3G coverage optimization, according to Infonetics Research.
By 2015, though, 4G (LTE and WiMAX) will have a more significant impact when a new global procurement cycle starts,’ predicts Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research’s principal analyst for mobile infrastructure.
“WiMAX likely will become established as the solution of choice for niche applications, such as supporting the smart grid, public safety, private citywide communications segments, as well as more basic broadband needs,” he says. “With the high volume of LTE news, people tend to overlook the fact that the WiMAX equipment market, which jumped 85 percent in 2010 to $1.7 billion, remains bigger than the LTE market, and continues to show healthy growth,” notes Richard Webb, directing analyst for WiMAX, microwave, and mobile devices at Infonetics Research.
That is true, for the moment, and destined to change drastically over time, as GSM operators globally start to add LTE networks in the next wave of network modernization. At some point, the sheer volume of LTE deployments will drive the economics of the infrastructure and handset markets. Few operators who have a choice will want to rely on WiMAX supply options, compared to what will be available to support LTE.
Infonetics Research: 4G infrastructure market to hit $16 billion by 2015