As with all major deals contemplated by communications industry leaders, there are winners and losers. Among the winners from the failed AT&T attempt to buy T-Mobile USA are Sprint, which remains within market share striking distance of the leaders, instead of facing what some might have called a duopoly market structure.
But since AT&T still needs more spectrum to support Long Term Evolution fourth generation networks, as does T-Mobile USA and other regional service providers, there are additional potential winners.
Dish Network, which plans to build a national LTE network, could win a major new partner or owner. Clearwire could win anchor tenants or a buyer for spectrum assets it cannot use immediately.
LightSquared, assuming it finally does launch, will not benefit, as Federal Communications Commission rules now bar either AT&T or Verizon Wireless from leasing service from LightSquared.
At some point in the future, additional former broadcast TV spectrum will be auctioned, but there is at present no legislation authorizing such auctions.
Some see competitive concerns in the Verizon purchase of cable AWS spectrum, but it arguably is AT&T which faces the biggest problem, as it owns far less spectrum than many of its competitors. Clearwire is the network with the most available spectrum, at least until Dish Network and LightSquared status is clarified.
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Current / Planned Technologies
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Previous Technologies
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Band
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Frequency (MHz)
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SMR iDEN, ESMR CDMA (future)
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800
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806-824 and 851-869
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GSM, IS-95 (CDMA), 3G
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AMPS, IS-136 (D-AMPS)
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Cellular
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824-849 and 869-894
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GSM, IS-95 (CDMA), 3G
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IS-136 (D-AMPS)
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PCS
|
1850–1910 and 1930–1990
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3G, 4G, MediaFlo, DVB-H
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700 MHz
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698-806
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Unknown
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1.4 GHz
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1392–1395 and 1432–1435
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3G, 4G
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AWS
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1710–1755 and 2110–2155
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4G
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BRS/EBS
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2496–2690
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At some point, when the existing 3G networks can be shut down, those frequencies can be used for 4G or later generations of networks as well, but that will take some time, perhaps another five to 10 years.
In the meantime, AT&T can seek to buy spectrum from another company, wait for the government to auction more frequencies or try to squeeze more capacity out of its current airwaves.
Each option is time-consuming, expensive and risky, said Colby Synesael, a Cowen & Co. analyst in New York. AT&T still needs more spectrum:
“Without this deal, it is going to be difficult for AT&T,” Synesael said. “There’s no clear solution.”
