Posts Tagged ‘3g’

80% of AT&T Backhaul Traffic Now on Ethernet Facilities

Friday, January 27th, 2012
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There’s an interesting tidbit in AT&T’s most-recent quarterly earnings report. CEO Randall Stephenson pointed out that AT&T now has “80 percent of our total mobile data traffic on Ethernet backhaul.”

That doesn’t mean 80 percent of the sites have been upgraded, but more than the sites representing 80 percent of the traffic have been upgraded to Ethernet facilities. What isn’t so clear is what has happened to backhaul as a percentage of operating costs.

In the past, backhaul has represented as much as 30 percent of total operating costs for some operators, in some cases perhaps even more.

AT&T has advantages greater than most other mobile service providers, in that it has the biggest fixed network physical footprint of any mobile service provider in the U.S. market, meaning AT&T has the ability to use its own facilities for backhaul, rather than leasing Ethernet connections from other providers.


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$840 Billion in Mobile Backhaul Spending in 2016

Friday, January 20th, 2012
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Juniper Research predicts that mobile network operators will have to spend $840 billion globally on optimizing backhaul assets and adding capacity between 2011 and 2016.

Microwave will represent about 60 percent of the backhaul in 2016, Juniper Research predicts. Microwave backhaul will be driven by capacity needs in Latin America, Central and  Eastern Europe, the Indian Subcontinent and the rest of the Asia Pacific region.

By 2016, operator investments in the Far East and China will reach $233 billion, driven by fiber backhaul deployments.

In North America, Juniper predicts that optical fiber will overtake copper as the most widely used access technology.

Microwave’s share of mobile backhaul capacity in the Indian Subcontinent is set to reach almost 87 percent by 2016.

But backhaul capacity will not the only key concern mobile executives will be facing between now and 2016. Juniper Research also forecasts that mobile service providers face potential capital investment and operating costs that actually exceed revenues by about 2014, according to Juniper Research.

The problem is that profit margins are running between 15 percent and 20 percent, which means many service providers are at about break even.

By 2015, costs will exceed revenues slightly, and fall below capital and operating expense by about 2016. Mobile backhaul


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7% LTE Adoption in 5 Years?

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011
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As a rule, mobile networks get replaced by the next generation about once a decade. So you might wonder how long it will take 4G to get significant traction. The answer might be “a longer time than you might think.”

Juniper Research forecasts a “rapid uptake” of LTE mobile broadband services over the next five years but only in some countries. Juniper Research estimates there will be 428 million LTE subscribers in service by 2016, representing about six percent of global mobile subscribers.
LTE forecast

Separately, IDATE forecasts 371 million subscribers worldwide in 2015. The United States and Asian markets are expected to drive most of this growth.

A forecast of six percent adoption five to six years after launch would have historical precedent.

After six or seven years, 3G subscribers had reached about 6.7 percent of global subscribers. The first pre-commercial 3G network was launched by NTT DoCoMo in Japan, in May 2001.

The first commercial 3G network in Europe was launched by Telenor in December 2001. 3G adoption The first network to go commercially live in Asia was SK Telecom in January 2002. Verizon Wireless launched 3G in July 2002.

By June 2007, globally, the 200 millionth 3G subscriber had been connected. Out of 3 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide this is only 6.7 percent.

The point is that 3G, the first broadband network, took six to seven years to reach nearly seven percent global penetration, though reaching much higher levels in the countries that made it a priority.

It would not be unusual if, on a global basis, similar results were to occur for the 4G introduction as well.


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