(Accedian Networks') EtherNEWS Blog

As a rule, mobile networks get replaced by the next generation about once a decade. So you might wonder how long it will take 4G to get significant traction. The answer might be “a longer time than you might think.”

Juniper Research forecasts a “rapid uptake” of LTE mobile broadband services over the next five years but only in some countries. Juniper Research estimates there will be 428 million LTE subscribers in service by 2016, representing about six percent of global mobile subscribers.
LTE forecast

Separately, IDATE forecasts 371 million subscribers worldwide in 2015. The United States and Asian markets are expected to drive most of this growth.

A forecast of six percent adoption five to six years after launch would have historical precedent.

After six or seven years, 3G subscribers had reached about 6.7 percent of global subscribers. The first pre-commercial 3G network was launched by NTT DoCoMo in Japan, in May 2001.

The first commercial 3G network in Europe was launched by Telenor in December 2001. 3G adoption The first network to go commercially live in Asia was SK Telecom in January 2002. Verizon Wireless launched 3G in July 2002.

By June 2007, globally, the 200 millionth 3G subscriber had been connected. Out of 3 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide this is only 6.7 percent.

The point is that 3G, the first broadband network, took six to seven years to reach nearly seven percent global penetration, though reaching much higher levels in the countries that made it a priority.

It would not be unusual if, on a global basis, similar results were to occur for the 4G introduction as well.