Archive for the ‘Opinion’ Category

TD-LTE Will Help Drive “WiMAX” Sales Volume

Saturday, April 3rd, 2010
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Volume matters in any consumer electronics business, which would explain the new interest in a version of Long Term Evolution by some WiMAX supporters. Simply, a new LTE standard using time division rather than frequency division would allow WiMAX networks to use consumer equipment designed to support the global LTE market, which is going to produce huge volumes of gear, since almost all mobile providers support LTE as the fourth-generation air interface standard.
The time division duplex version of LTE is known as TD-LTE, and there is a push on to ratify TD-LTE as an official LTE standard working in the 2.6 GHz frequency range, which currently is set aside in some markets for WiMAX.
TD-LTE would therefore leverage the expected wide availability of FDD LTE devices on networks originally envisioned as using the WiMAX air interface.
The new standard would allow WiMAX providers to avoid the “low volume” constraint that will limit the amount of effort and attention developers and device manufacturers will spend creating WiMAX customer premises equipment.
There would not appear to be major impediments to getting such a standard approved, and such a move would allow Clearwire and Sprint, for example, to participate in the volume manufacturing scale LTE devices are expected to achieve.
That, in turn, will make Clearwire and Sprint’s 4G network a lot more attractive to end users, who will have access to a broader selection of handsets at lower prices.

Volume matters in any consumer electronics business, which would explain the new interest in a version of Long Term Evolution by some WiMAX supporters. Simply, a new LTE standard using time division rather than frequency division would allow WiMAX networks to use consumer equipment designed to support the global LTE market, which is going to produce huge volumes of gear, since almost all mobile providers support LTE as the fourth-generation air interface standard.

The time division duplex version of LTE is known as TD-LTE, and there is a push on to ratify TD-LTE as an official LTE standard working in the 2.6 GHz frequency range, which currently is set aside in some markets for WiMAX.

TD-LTE would therefore leverage the expected wide availability of FDD LTE devices on networks originally envisioned as using the WiMAX air interface.

The new standard would allow WiMAX providers to avoid the “low volume” constraint that will limit the amount of effort and attention developers and device manufacturers will spend creating WiMAX customer premises equipment.

There would not appear to be major impediments to getting such a standard approved, and such a move would allow Clearwire and Sprint, for example, to participate in the volume manufacturing scale LTE devices are expected to achieve.

That, in turn, will make Clearwire and Sprint’s 4G network a lot more attractive to end users, who will have access to a broader selection of handsets at lower prices.


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Another National LTE Network Coming?

Sunday, March 28th, 2010
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Another National LTE Network Coming?
There’s quite a lot of fourth-generation mobile network construction happening, and about to happen, in the U.S. market, but the wild card now is that an entirely-new Long Term Evolution network might be built using spectrum originally allocated for satellite networks.
Harbinger Capital, which recently merged with SkyTerra, proposes to build a fully integrated satellite-terrestrial network to serve North American mobile users, featuring national LTE facilities that would operate on a wholesale-only basis.
The Federal Communications Commission apparently has required that, as part of the Harbinger purchase of SkyTerra, the firm operate as a wholsaler, and also that AT&T and Verizon traffic cannot account for more than 25 percent of total traffic carried on the Harbinger network.
The planned network would launch before the third quarter of 2011 and cover nine million people, with trials set initially for Denver and Phoenix. The next milestone is that 100 million people have to be covered by the end of 2012, 145 million by the end of 2013 and at least 260 million people in the United States by the end of 2015. Harbinger told the FCC that all major markets will be installed by the end of the second quarter of 2013.
Before any of that could happen, though, Harbinger would have to find additional investors willing to provide $5 billion worth of investment capital.
Analyst Chris King at Stifel Nicolaus estimates that Verizon’s LTE network will cost about $5 billion to deploy. Clearwire has also spent billions on its network, with analyst estimates ranging from $3 billion to about $6 billion. There is no particular reason to think the ubiquitous terrestrial network Harbinger expects to build would cost less.
http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2010/02/18/what-does-harbinger-do-next/

There’s quite a lot of fourth-generation mobile network construction happening, and about to happen, in the U.S. market, but the wild card now is that an entirely-new Long Term Evolution network might be built using spectrum originally allocated for satellite networks.

Harbinger Capital, which recently merged with SkyTerra, proposes to build a fully integrated satellite-terrestrial network to serve North American mobile users, featuring national LTE facilities that would operate on a wholesale-only basis.

The Federal Communications Commission apparently has required that, as part of the Harbinger purchase of SkyTerra, the firm operate as a wholsaler, and also that AT&T and Verizon traffic cannot account for more than 25 percent of total traffic carried on the Harbinger network.

The planned network would launch before the third quarter of 2011 and cover nine million people, with trials set initially for Denver and Phoenix. The next milestone is that 100 million people have to be covered by the end of 2012, 145 million by the end of 2013 and at least 260 million people in the United States by the end of 2015. Harbinger told the FCC that all major markets will be installed by the end of the second quarter of 2013.

Before any of that could happen, though, Harbinger would have to find additional investors willing to provide $5 billion worth of investment capital.

Analyst Chris King at Stifel Nicolaus estimates that Verizon’s LTE network will cost about $5 billion to deploy. Clearwire has also spent billions on its network, with analyst estimates ranging from $3 billion to about $6 billion. There is no particular reason to think the ubiquitous terrestrial network Harbinger expects to build would cost less.

http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2010/02/18/what-does-harbinger-do-next/


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Sprint Accelerates 4G Build

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010
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Sprint has accelerated its previously-announced timetable for adding new 4G cities in 2010, adding Los Angeles and Miami to the list of cities it will activate this year.
Newly announced markets that will see 4G in 2010 are Cincinnati, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Miami, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and St. Louis.
Earlier this year Sprint announced that it planned to launch 4G in Boston, Denver, Kansas City, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., in 2010.
Sprint argues that its 4G WiMAX network operates up to 10 times faster than a 3G network, based on typical download speeds of 600 kbps for a 3G network compared to a 4G network’s 6 Mbps download speed.
Recent studies suggest typical performance of a 3G network ranges from  600 kbps to 1.7 Mbps while 4G average speeds run between 3 Mbps and 6 Mbps.
Separately, Verizon Wireless has accelerated its own timetable for 4G deployment, aiming to activate its Long Term Evolution in at least 25 cities, potentially reaching 100 million people, by the end of 2010.
That would be a stunningly quick deployment of a new nework, given the fact that Sprint has been building out its 4G network for a couple of years.
AT&T plans to start activating its 4G network in 2012.
By some estimates, the number of U.S. mobile tower sites will grow from about 228,000 (2008 base) to as many as 300,000 as a result of all the activity.
In 2008 the U.S. had 228,000 cell sites feeding a backhaul network. These sites were each served by between 5 Mbps and 10 Mbps of backhaul capacity on average. This added up to mobile operators in the U.S. spending $6.2 billion on backhaul services. Globally, service providers spent more than $24 billion in 2008 on backhaul services.
In a case study Yankee Group conducted with one of the tier one mobile operators in 2009,  more than 50 percent of data traffic was coming from desktop or laptop computers using aircards or dongles.
Approximately 24 percent was coming from screen phones and a little more than 20 percent was coming from smartphones (iPhones, BlackBerries). If the traffic trends continue, by 2012 more than 55 percent of the traffic will be coming from the smartphone “advanced OS” category, i.e., more than half of the mobile data traffic will be generated by truly mobile, instead of nomadic, users sending large amounts of data, voice or video traffic.
The backhaul implications are fairly simple, in terms of backhaul bandwidth requirements. A 2G voice network can get by with two T1 links. A 2.5 G EDGE network requires 4 T1s. A 3G HSPA network requires at least 10 T1s. Coming 4G networks might need as much as 10 times that much bandwidth.
By 2012 Yankee Group expects more than 300,000 cell sites in the United States, each supporting between 50 Mbps and 100 Mbps in backhaul capacity. In general, leasing a T1 costs about $300 per month, per mile. Seven T1s, adding up to a backhaul capacity of just more than 10 Mbps, will cost a U.S.-based provider about $2,100 per month per mile.
If we were to keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a backhaul bill of $82 billion by 2012 and the monthly average cost per site would be about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100 per mile.  That’s not an option.
Performance requirements also are growing. Network architects as asking for one-way jitter of 1 to 3 milliseconds and one-way latency of 3 to 5 ms.

Sprint has accelerated its previously-announced timetable for adding new 4G cities in 2010, adding Los Angeles and Miami to the list of cities it will activate this year.

Newly announced markets that will see 4G in 2010 are Cincinnati, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Miami, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and St. Louis.

Earlier this year Sprint announced that it planned to launch 4G in Boston, Denver, Kansas City, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., in 2010.

Sprint argues that its 4G WiMAX network operates up to 10 times faster than a 3G network, based on typical download speeds of 600 kbps for a 3G network compared to a 4G network’s 6 Mbps download speed.

Recent studies suggest typical performance of a 3G network ranges from  600 kbps to 1.7 Mbps while 4G average speeds run between 3 Mbps and 6 Mbps.

Separately, Verizon Wireless has accelerated its own timetable for 4G deployment, aiming to activate its Long Term Evolution in at least 25 cities, potentially reaching 100 million people, by the end of 2010.

That would be a stunningly quick deployment of a new nework, given the fact that Sprint has been building out its 4G network for a couple of years.

AT&T plans to start activating its 4G network in 2012.

By some estimates, the number of U.S. mobile tower sites will grow from about 228,000 (2008 base) to as many as 300,000 as a result of all the activity.

In 2008 the U.S. had 228,000 cell sites feeding a backhaul network. These sites were each served by between 5 Mbps and 10 Mbps of backhaul capacity on average. This added up to mobile operators in the U.S. spending $6.2 billion on backhaul services. Globally, service providers spent more than $24 billion in 2008 on backhaul services.

In a case study Yankee Group conducted with one of the tier one mobile operators in 2009,  more than 50 percent of data traffic was coming from desktop or laptop computers using aircards or dongles.

Approximately 24 percent was coming from screen phones and a little more than 20 percent was coming from smartphones (iPhones, BlackBerries). If the traffic trends continue, by 2012 more than 55 percent of the traffic will be coming from the smartphone “advanced OS” category, i.e., more than half of the mobile data traffic will be generated by truly mobile, instead of nomadic, users sending large amounts of data, voice or video traffic.

The backhaul implications are fairly simple, in terms of backhaul bandwidth requirements. A 2G voice network can get by with two T1 links. A 2.5 G EDGE network requires 4 T1s. A 3G HSPA network requires at least 10 T1s. Coming 4G networks might need as much as 10 times that much bandwidth.

By 2012 Yankee Group expects more than 300,000 cell sites in the United States, each supporting between 50 Mbps and 100 Mbps in backhaul capacity. In general, leasing a T1 costs about $300 per month, per mile. Seven T1s, adding up to a backhaul capacity of just more than 10 Mbps, will cost a U.S.-based provider about $2,100 per month per mile.

If we were to keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a backhaul bill of $82 billion by 2012 and the monthly average cost per site would be about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100 per mile.  That’s not an option.

Performance requirements also are growing. Network architects as asking for one-way jitter of 1 to 3 milliseconds and one-way latency of 3 to 5 ms.


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