Archive for March, 2010

Even for Search, Latency Matters

Friday, March 19th, 2010
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Even for Search, Latency Matters
Even for a relatively non-latency sensitive application, such as Google search, there are measurable business implications.  Google’s own experiments “demonstrate that slowing down the search results page by 100 to 400 milliseconds has a measurable impact on the number of searches per user of -0.2 percent to -0.6 percent, says Jake Brutlag, Google “Web search infrastructure” staffer.
Basically, that means 0.2 percent to 0.6 percent fewer searches for changes under half a second of delay. For a company that makes its money serving up ads on search results pages, that means a real loss of income-earning potential.
Furthermore, users conduct fewer and fewer searches the longer they are exposed to the delay. Users exposed to a 200 milliseconds of delay since the beginning of the experiment did 0.22 percent fewer searches during the first three weeks, but 0.36 percent fewer searches during the second three weeks.
As you would expect, people avoid experiences that are unpleasant.
Users exposed to a 400 ms delay did 0.44 percent fewer searches during the first three weeks, but 0.76 percent fewer searches during the second three weeks.
Even if the page returns to the faster state, users who saw the longer delay take time to return to their previous usage level. Users exposed to the 400 ms delay for six weeks did 0.21 percent fewer searches on average during the five week period after we stopped injecting the delay.
While these numbers may seem small, a daily impact of 0.5 percent is of real consequence at the scale of Google Web search, says Brutlag

Even for a relatively non-latency sensitive application, such as Google search, there are measurable business implications.  Google’s own experiments “demonstrate that slowing down the search results page by 100 to 400 milliseconds has a measurable impact on the number of searches per user of -0.2 percent to -0.6 percent, says Jake Brutlag, Google “Web search infrastructure” staffer.

Basically, that means 0.2 percent to 0.6 percent fewer searches for changes under half a second of delay. For a company that makes its money serving up ads on search results pages, that means a real loss of income-earning potential.

Furthermore, users conduct fewer and fewer searches the longer they are exposed to the delay. Users exposed to a 200 milliseconds of delay since the beginning of the experiment did 0.22 percent fewer searches during the first three weeks, but 0.36 percent fewer searches during the second three weeks.

As you would expect, people avoid experiences that are unpleasant.

Users exposed to a 400 ms delay did 0.44 percent fewer searches during the first three weeks, but 0.76 percent fewer searches during the second three weeks.

Even if the page returns to the faster state, users who saw the longer delay take time to return to their previous usage level. Users exposed to the 400 ms delay for six weeks did 0.21 percent fewer searches on average during the five week period after we stopped injecting the delay.

While these numbers may seem small, a daily impact of 0.5 percent is of real consequence at the scale of Google Web search, says Brutlag


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LTE: Cleaning Up the Cell Site

Thursday, March 18th, 2010
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I’ve winced every time I’ve heard the time “convergence” over the past several years.  Convergence has always been a marketing word for “mess”, where multiple technologies co-exist and intermingle in ways that increase Tylenol consumption and slow down true telecom innovation.

Today’s wireless networks, including the current 3G deployments, still rely on this dirty word with “converged” cell site connections – duplicating provisioning of both TDM private lines for voice, timing and signaling and Ethernet for data.

There are many good reasons why.  Until recently, Ethernet hasn’t proven as reliable as required to carry conversations, and T1s are already in place at cell sites where sync is required to keep radios locked on a common frequency and phase for roaming hand-offs.  Necessary for now, but inefficient (and despised?) all the same.

LTE offers a chance to do some spring cleaning at the cell site, simplifying backhaul connectivity with a single, performance-assured Carrier Ethernet link.  Simplicity looks like it’s making its way back into telecom, right?

Cell Site Evolution

Unfortunately, we may be gaining capacity and working with less equipment, but the clutter has simply moved from physical equipment to the way it’s configured.  No one ever had their Mom tell them “clean up your virtual room”, but this is where the mess goes in LTE backhaul networks – into the provisioning, monitoring and performance assurance required to compensate for having all your data running through a single pipe.

Making a clean break to a fully packet-based architecture, voice calls will be VoIP, carried over the same all-IP infrastructure carrying the latest generation of multicast and on-demand web-based video, Internet, messaging and email traffic.  With each vying for available bandwidth, maintaining per-application Quality of Service (QoS) is critical – the best-effort, limited-bandwidth backhaul connections serving legacy data services will not suffice.

4G services require ultra-low latency, jitter, and packet loss with assured throughput and availability.  Latency can spell the end of conversations if signaling delays interrupt session continuity when roaming between cells.  Jitter and packet loss can make audio inaudible and video unwatchable.  Insufficient backhaul bandwidth leads to congestion, increasing latency, packet loss and packet retransmission resulting in degraded QoS.  Availability is the most basic of all –  if the network goes down, so do your customers – outages and lack of bandwidth are the primary drivers for customer churn.

So while Ethernet to the cell site is certainly the future (and looks clean from the perspective of slick, stylized network diagrams), it doesn’t come without its own baggage.  Best to be prepared for the surprises that are popping up in field trials – keep an eye on QoS, monitor it proactively or you may just discover the monsters in the closet.

CTIA next week will be a good place to explore these trends – check out the backhaul pavilion, get trained and attend the talks going on to learn all about what we’re facing.


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High-Capacity Mobile Backhaul to Grow 20x by 2015

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010
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Over three quarters of all deployed base stations globally employ 6 Mbps or less of backhaul capacity today, well within the capabilities of traditional E1/T1 technology,say researchers at Visant Strategies.
Obviously that will not be the case in five years, as 3G and 4G mobile broadband networks become more common, increasing requiremnts at cell sites by a factor of from two to five, says Visant Strategies.
Base stations with more than 24 Mbps of backhaul capacity will grow by more than a factor of twenty from 2009 to 2015 while in 2015 the number of base stations with less than 12 Mbps of backhaul capacity will be half of that today, the company suggests.
Also, wireless backhaul links will nearly double by 2015 while wireline backhaul links will increase slightly through the same period.
http://www.visantstrategies.com/forecast/US_wireless_backhaul_4G.html

Over three quarters of all deployed base stations globally employ 6 Mbps or less of backhaul capacity today, well within the capabilities of traditional E1/T1 technology,say researchers at Visant Strategies.

Obviously that will not be the case in five years, as 3G and 4G mobile broadband networks become more common, increasing requiremnts at cell sites by a factor of from two to five, says Visant Strategies.

Base stations with more than 24 Mbps of backhaul capacity will grow by more than a factor of twenty from 2009 to 2015 while in 2015 the number of base stations with less than 12 Mbps of backhaul capacity will be half of that today, the company suggests.

Also, wireless backhaul links will nearly double by 2015 while wireline backhaul links will increase slightly through the same period.

http://www.visantstrategies.com/forecast/US_wireless_backhaul_4G.html


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